RoofViews

Building Science

Solar Power is Now Competitive

By Thomas J Taylor

March 07, 2019

Solar Power

For Commercial Roofing, Careful Design and Material Choices Can Make Solar Compelling

Each energy production type, such as coal and solar, has a range of costs depending on location, the efficiency of the particular equipment used, etc. Today the range of costs of photovoltaic — or solar —power now overlap those of conventional sources of electricity as shown in the following graphic (2021 data courtesy of Lazard).

Unsubsidized Cost of Energy

To better compare true costs, the data shown above does not include any tax or other subsidies. The term "Levelized Cost" is defined as an economic assessment of the average total cost to build and operate a power-generating asset over its lifetime divided by the total energy output of the asset over that lifetime. It includes initial capital, as well as maintenance, operating, and fuel costs. It is the breakeven cost without any margins for profit.

An immediate conclusion from the chart is that solar energy, especially utility scale and commercial and industrial roof installations, is competitive with conventional power generation. For the remainder of this article, solar on commercial and industrial roofs ("solar C & I") will be examined more closely.

The power cost of solar C & I varies between $85 and $194 per megawatt hour, or MWh. The design and engineering of such rooftop solar arrays are now highly specialized with a focus on increasing performance (i.e., output or production) and lowering costs. A key metric is the energy density, or energy production per unit area, which will be examined in detail here together with the expected productive life of such installations. Energy density and overall life cycle are important drivers of levelized cost. Some specific parameters vary depending on whether an array is comprised of standard solar panels or bifacial panels. These are discussed separately.

Standard Solar Modules

Maximizing Energy Density

The array design plays a key role in determining energy density. For maximum power production per panel, the array orientation is directly perpendicular to the sun's energy. This results from having south-facing panels angled at 30° (for southern US locations) as shown here:

maximum energy yield per panel copy

However, this arrangement doesn't maximize the number of panels that can be mounted in a given area. In other words, the energy density isn't maximized. The following schematic shows the panels closer together, but at a less optimum angle to the sun. The panels are at a lower angle to avoid shading and so there is a trade-off between maximizing power from each individual panel versus that of the entire installation.

maximum energy density

Of course, the sun's angle changes with location, time of day and throughout the year. However, solar system designers now model an array's output to maximize the annualized energy density for each specific location.

The Daily Energy Curve

If an array is oriented directly south, then power output would rise during the day as the sun rose in the sky. Peak power would be produced between noon and 1pm when the sun is most directly overhead, after which it would taper off. This might seem optimal but there are two situations that could change that perspective:

  • Some utility companies prefer that solar arrays be designed to produce peak power closer to mid-afternoon, to coincide with peak power demand due to air conditioning loads. In such cases, solar arrays are oriented slightly westerly so that the sun is more perpendicular to the panels in mid-afternoon.
  • Solar C&I installations are sometimes made with the express intention of supplying as much of a building's power as possible. In such cases, it might be desirable to smooth out the power curve so that power is provided more uniformly throughout the day. This is done by arranging the panels in a so-called east-west orientation, shown in the following schematic:

The Daily Energy Curve

Daily energy output from such a configuration, compared to that of a more conventional south facing array is shown in the following plot:

Power output

Examination of the east-west panel arrangement suggests that energy density, while not maximized, could be fairly high. Such an installation essentially avoids shading except around sunrise and sunset.

Solar Array Lifetime Assumption

As described earlier, levelized cost calculations assume a certain lifetime during which the asset will produce power. In the case of the data shown in the initial graph, solar arrays were assumed to have a twenty year lifespan. There is some evidence that most solar panel failures occur during the initial years of operation, as manufacturing defects and the like cause breakdowns. However, once those few defective panels have been replaced, there is significant anecdotal evidence that arrays can produce useful power for several decades.

Inverters, which are necessary to convert an array's direct current to alternating current, may also experience initial failures due to manufacturing and wiring defects. Inverters may also experience longer-term failures, but as inverter costs continue to fall, replacement/repair of these devices becomes part of regular system maintenance.

Roof membrane life can be a significant factor in determining the long term economic life of a solar C & I installation. If the membrane requires replacement, the cost of removing and then re-installing the array could prove to be prohibitive. GAF EverGuard Extreme® TPO was developed for demanding installations and for those situations where a longer roof service life was desired. With guarantee coverage available up to 35 years (depending on installation method and membrane thickness) and exceptional accelerated weathering performance, the long term risk of failure is lower for GAF EverGuard Extreme® TPO than for other TPO membranes.

Bifacial Solar Modules

So far, this blog has been focused on conventional solar panels. However, bifacial solar panels could provide more power than standard modules and are growing in popularity. However, bifacial modules change some of the considerations we've been discussing. Bifacial solar panels are able to absorb solar energy from both sides, with the general concept shown here:

bifacial absorption

Bifacial panels should be installed above highly reflective surfaces, as shown here:

Reflective Surface

It is important to ensure that the underlying substrate is not shaded too much. In fact, bifacial modules require a different set of considerations to maximize power density as compared to the conventional panels discussed above. There are three factors that can increase the energy production of a bifacial installation: the module height above the membrane, the tilt angle, and module row-to-row spacing.

Bifacial Module Height

Module height is important because of its relationship with shading of the membrane. As the following schematic suggests, modules that are further above a highly reflective membrane will produce more energy than those closer.

Bifacial Module

Design guidelines such as those provided by LG* and Prism* suggest the following relationship between height, measured to the lowest point, and bifacial energy gain.

Bifacial Gain by Module Elevation

The array designer will need to balance factors like wind resistance and cost against the potential energy gain. In most situations, it would be wise to keep the modules at or below the parapet wall height to minimize wind loads.

Bifacial Tilt Angle and Row Spacing

As with standard modules, the tilt angle of bifacial panels can be increased to maximize energy density, but membrane coverage must be considered. This is best explained by referring to the following schematic.

Membrane Coverage Ratio

Standard module rows can be closely spaced, with the limiting factor being the degree of shading of the modules themselves. With bifacial modules, shading of the membrane is the limiting factor. As with module height, the bifacial gain in energy can be modeled as a function of membrane coverage ratio. The following graphic shows a generalized response for a bifacial module with a high rear side efficiency:

Membrane Coverage Ratio

Membrane Reflectivity

As stated earlier, the output of bifacial solar panels is dependent on the reflectivity of the substrate. In the case of TPO single ply roofing membranes, there are generally only minor differences between TPO membranes from different manufacturers in terms of initial reflectance. The critical measure is solar reflectance since it is visible light that provides energy for conversion to electricity. Solar Reflectance Index, or SRI, is not appropriate because it includes an emittance term which is a measure of heat being radiated from the surface.

The independent Cool Roof Rating Council shows GAF EverGuard® TPO to have an initial reflectivity of 0.76, in line with other standard TPO membranes. The three year aged reflectivity is shown as 0.68, again in line with other TPO membranes. However, GAF EverGuard Extreme® has an initial reflectivity of 0.83, i.e., 7 percentage points higher than the standard TPO. The three-year aged value is stated to be 0.72.

Many in the solar industry use albedo as a measure of reflectance, instead of solar reflectance used by the roofing industry. In practice, the two measures are very similar, with albedo being a total spectrum reflectance while solar reflectance is primarily measured across the visible region of the sun's energy. The following chart shows the bifacial energy gain as a function of roof albedo, using data from LG*.

Bifacial Energy Gain by Albedo

Clearly, high albedo or solar reflectance increases the energy output from bifacial modules in a solar C&I application. It is thus beneficial to have a membrane like GAF EverGuard Extreme® TPO, which has the potential to maintain a high reflectance. As discussed in the previous blog, TPO generally can maintain a higher level of reflectance versus other membrane types, but also GAF EverGuard Extreme® TPO in particular could resist dirt pick-up for a longer time than other TPO membranes.

Solar Array Lifetime Assumption

For bifacial module installations, membrane life is as important as for standard solar modules, i.e., a long system life can lower the levelized cost of energy. This can then contribute to levelized costs that are more competitive versus conventional energy sources.

Summary

  • Solar energy costs are now very competitive with respect to conventional energy sources such as coal and gas-powered generation.
  • Optimization of the levelized cost of solar power is key to making such power a compelling choice.
  • Maximizing energy density from solar C&I installations, although somewhat different for standard solar modules versus bifacial modules, is an important factor in lowering overall energy costs.
  • Roof membrane choice is important for two reasons:

    • Membranes like GAF EverGuard Extreme® TPO provide a longer service life than standard TPO membranes, which can reduce or eliminate costs of removal and reinstallation of the solar array associated with roof replacement

    • The high reflectivity and possible long term maintenance of that reflectivity makes GAF EverGuard Extreme® TPO a compelling choice for bifacial module installations. This is due to the bifacial energy gain resulting from higher albedo substrates.



*Trade and company names or company products referred to herein are intended only to describe the materials and products discussed. In no case do these references imply recommendation or endorsement, nor do they imply that the particular products are the best available for the purpose discussed.

About the Author

Thomas J Taylor, PhD is the Building & Roofing Science Advisor for GAF. Tom has over 20 year’s experience in the building products industry, all working for manufacturing organizations. He received his PhD in chemistry from the University of Salford, England, and holds approximately 35 patents. Tom’s main focus at GAF is roofing system design and building energy use reduction. Under Tom’s guidance GAF has developed TPO with unmatched weathering resistance.

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By Authors Elizabeth Grant

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very severe hail
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Defending Against Very Severe Hail

Think that your roof doesn't need protection against hail? Think again.Severe hail events are increasing in geographic footprint and are no longer just in hail alley. The geographic region that experiences 1 inch or larger hailstones has expanded to be nearly two-thirds of the United States. Nearly 10 percent more U.S. properties, more than 6.8 million, were affected by hail in 2021 than in 2020. Coinciding with the increase in properties affected by a damaging hail event in 2021, there was also an increase in insurance claims, which rose to $16.5 billion from $14.2 billion in 2020.Figure 1: The estimated number of properties affected by one or more damaging hail events. Source: NOAA, graphed by VeriskAccording to data from Factory Mutual Insurance Company (FM Global), a leader in establishing best practices to protect buildings, the review of client losses between 2016-20, showed that the average wind/hail losses averaged $931,000 per event. 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Loss Prevention Data Sheets provide FM's best advice for new construction and for Data Sheet 1-34, this includes new or reroofing projects on existing buildings. Data Sheet 1-34 provides guidelines to minimize the potential for hail damage to buildings and roof-mounted equipment. FM Global intends that the data sheets apply to its insured buildings; however, some designers use data sheets as design guidelines for buildings other than those insured by FM Global.FM's LPDS 1-34 identifies the hail hazard areas across the United States: Moderate Hail hazard area, Severe Hail hazard area, and Very Severe Hail (VSH) hazard area which are defined by hail size. Note that the VSH area roughly correlates to Hail Alley. Hail Alley receives more hailstorms, and more severe ones, compared to other parts of the country.Figure 2: FM's LPDS 1-34 map outlining the different hail categories: moderate, severe, and very severe. The Very Severe area is most commonly referred to as "Hail alley".The hail hazard areas are divided by hail size, with the Very Severe hail hazard area being the largest hail size of greater than 2 inches. As a result, roofing assemblies have to meet the most stringent hail testing for designation in the Very Severe hazard area.Figure 3: Description of FM Approval hail regions.Even if you are not in hail alley, or one of the states in FM's Very Severe Hail area, hail larger than 2 inches still has the potential to occur throughout the contiguous United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tracks weather events throughout the United States, including hail. NOAA's hail database includes information such as location, date, and magnitude (size) of the hail stone for each event. A sampling of typical data is provided below; note that several states that are outside of FM's VSH zone, had hail events that would qualify as VSH, where hail stones were recorded to be larger than 2-inches in size.Figure 4: Hail events in states that are outside of the VSH area, but qualify as VSH by size.How Do I Design For Very Severe Hail?In order for a roof assembly to achieve a hail rating, the assembly must pass a hail test. FM Approvals designs the hail tests including a different test for each hail hazard area. Hail testing generally includes the use of steel or ice balls that are dropped or launched at roof assemblies in a laboratory setting. Pass criteria vary by the test, but generally visual damage cannot be present to either the membrane or components below. Roof assemblies that pass each individual hail test are FM approved to be installed in each hail hazard area.There are thousands of FM rated assemblies and it can be difficult to choose just one. To start, it is important to note that selection consists of an entire assembly, however consideration of all roof components including the membrane, coverboard, and attachment method each play an important role in how the assembly defends against hail.Membrane selection is critical for Very Severe Hail prone regions. Thicker roof membranes, as well as higher performance grades that will remain pliable under heat and UV exposure over time and will outperform standard grade materials. Fleeceback membranes also provide an added cushion layer that buffers hail impact.Coverboard selection is a critical component of the roof system design. High compressive strength coverboards are an effective means to enhance the performance of the roof system when exposed to hail events. A coverboard will enhance the roof's long term performance by fortifying the membrane when hail strikes as well as providing a firm surface to help resist damage from typical foot traffic. It will also help the roof insulation below withstand damage from hail. While conventional gypsum coverboards and high-density polyiso coverboards provide excellent protection against foot traffic and smaller hail, they are not effective for VSH. Coverboards for VSH systems were originally limited to plywood or oriented strand board (OSB). The use of plywood and OSB is very labor intensive to install as compared to traditional gypsum coverboards, increasing the cost of the installation. Recently, coverboard manufacturers have developed glass mat roof boards which are a reinforced gypsum core with a heavy-duty coated glass mat facer. Not only do these boards provide protection against 2-inch hail and are an important part of VSH assemblies, they are also a FM Class 1 and UL Class A thermal barrier for fire rated assemblies. These boards are 5/8" thick and are 92-96 pounds per 4'x8' board; about 30 percent heavier compared to plywood yet easier to install as they can be scored and cut like a traditional gypsum board.Consideration of roof attachment method is critical for selection of VSH assemblies. Historically, mechanically attached systems were not able to pass the VSH tests; when an ice ball hit the head of the fastener or plate, the result was a laceration in the membrane. To avoid failures of the membrane at the fasteners and plates, the fasteners were traditionally buried in the system; the insulation was mechanically attached and the coverboard and membrane were adhered. This is still a common installation method and as a result, there are a large number of assemblies where the membrane and coverboard are adhered. Additionally, burying the fasteners allows for the installation of a smooth backed membrane. With the development of glass mat coverboards, there are VSH rated assemblies that can be simultaneously fastened (mechanically attached coverboard and insulation) that utilize an adhered fleece-back membrane.Figure 5: VSH systems. Left is simultaneously fastened 60 mil Fleeceback TPO over glass mat VSH roof board and Polyiso Insulation. Right is 60 mil Fleeceback TPO over glass mat VSH roof board adhered in low rise foam ribbons to mechanically attached Polyiso Insulation.Figure 6: A sample of available VSH assemblies.SummaryWhy Should We Design for VSH?Severe hail events are increasing in geographic footprint and storms with hailstones that meet Very Severe Hail criteria are occurring throughout the country. While designing for VSH is a requirement if a building falls within the VSH area and is ensured by FM Global, many owners and designers are opting for roof assemblies that can withstand VSH storms even if they are not insured by FM Global. Material selection, such as coverboard and membrane, are key components to managing this risk. Glass mat coverboards and thicker, higher grade single-ply membranes, such as fleece-back, increase the roof assembly's resistance to damage. Choosing the right roof assembly could be the difference between weathering the storm or significant damage from hail.What are the next steps?Learn about GAF's Hail Storm System Resources, and as always, feel free to reach out to the Building & Roofing Science team with questions.

By Authors Kristin Westover

January 30, 2023

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